by Temujin

So, we have 3 campaigns going on right now, although the date of the election (possibly on 5th May) has yet to be announced, though it is expected to be on 4th April.

Campaign 1 is the Labour campaign, which has been, by and large, as effective as a paraplegic with a machine gun, and as original as a speech by Bush ending with "God bless America." Their main thrust is to find the least popular politicians (except for Blair) and then have them make attacks on Tory announcements. The least popular politicians I refer to are John Reid, Health Secretary, and Alan Milburn, (Minister for running bad elections and being Tony's friend), Chancellor of Lancaster and slimy toad. A good example of two Labour strikes are: 1) Reid attacks Howard's use of Margaret Dixon (a woman who had 7 cancelled operations for a broken shoulder) but in so doing asserts the Tories won't dare debate the issue. Later, appearing on Newsnight when a Tory representative was on, he got extremely angry and accused the interviewer (Paxman) of racism. 2) Labour (Blair) say the Tories will cut 35bn in spending. However, the Tories will merely increase spending at the current rate, rather than at an accelerated rate as Labour intend to....which isn't a cut now, is it? Many have also asked for Gordon Brown (future King of Labour) to return to running the campaign as he did in the 1997 and 2001 landslide victories, as Milburn is not only a poor, patronising communicator, but disliked by everyone and a thorough incompetent.

Campaign 2 is the Conservative campaign, (also referred to as Tory). This has been very attention-grabbing, jumping from issue to issue, mostly divisive (ranging from hospital cleanliness to illegal gypsy encampments.) The Labour poll lead has been cut, but they still would win by a large amount of seats (perhaps 100) if the polls reflect turnout on the day. Furthermore, the Tories have few big names on the front bench. Most would recognise David Davis or Oliver Letwin, but them and the elader (Michael Howard) aside, few recognisable people, and few charismatic (excepting Boris Johnson), though the latter point is applicable to Labour also.

Campaign 3 is the Liberal Democrat campaign. Despite having under 10% of the seats of the Commons, they're getting an inordinately large amount of media coverage. Their campaign posters feature the face of their leader, Charles Kennedy, the most popular leader, perhaps because he's never been in a position of power and thus has never cocked anything important up. Interestingly, he's put forward the view that the Tory-Labour mudslinging is a turnoff and juvenile, whilst chastising them both with the same statement. The Lib Dems are a major factor, probably not because they'll win many more seats (though I expect them to make gains) but because a stronger third party means vote-splitting can let another candidate in through the middle (eg Lib Dem and Tory get 20% each, Labour gets 30% because anti-Labour vote is split and gets in again).

Temujin's predictions at this stage:
Labour to win with a majority of 52

I'd prefer a Tory victory, but can't see it happening, although they are making gains.